Judging by the follow-through of this week's breakouts, the market reads Negative. Of the 82 stocks picked between Wednesday last week and Tuesday, 15 closed Friday more than 3% above their entry price — a 18.3% hit rate, below the 35% floor. That compares with 48.7% a week earlier (30.4 pp lower). In plain terms: about 1.8 in every 10 stocks picked earlier in the week finished Friday at least 3% above where they were picked.
| Item | This week |
|---|---|
| Selections (three models) | 89 records |
| Eligible after de-duplication | 82 stocks |
| Excluded (suspended / no price) | 0 stocks |
| Cleared the 3% bar | 15 stocks |
| Hit rate | 18.3% |
| Closed higher (return > 0) | 36 stocks (43.9%) |
| Median return | -0.39% |
| Average return | -0.89% |
| Best / worst | +19.47% / -19.67% |
The median deserves more attention than the average: a few very large winners or losers can move the average, while the median shows what happened to the stock in the middle of the list.
Hit rate, last 8 weeks: 19.2% → 21.0% → 32.4% → 23.1% → 22.4% → 16.7% → 48.7% → 18.3%.
About this indicator
The indicator tracks one specific thing: which stocks the system picked between Wednesday last week and Tuesday, and how many of them closed Friday more than 3% above their pick-day price. A high share means this week's fresh breakouts tended to follow through; a low share means they mostly faded.
Both prices are adjusted closes, so dividends and splits do not create fake drops. A stock picked more than once in the window counts once, using its earliest pick date. Suspended or unpriced records are left out of the denominator, and a return has to be strictly above 3% to count — exactly 3% does not. Because pick dates differ, holding periods this week run from 3 to 7 trading days.
The stocks counted come from three places: KDZD (pocket pivot), YXFZ (monthly reversal), and stocks making a confirmed VCP breakout, including those upgraded from the watch list on volume. The band describes what already happened: above 50% is positive, 35% to 50% neutral, below 35% negative; with fewer than 10 eligible stocks, no band is given.
This article is a statistical review of prices that have already happened. It does not forecast index direction and is not investment advice. Weekly samples are small, so the rate will move around; read several weeks together.