Judging by the follow-through of this week's breakouts, the market reads Negative. Of the 50 stocks picked between Wednesday last week and Tuesday, 11 closed Friday more than 3% above their entry price — a 22.4% hit rate, below the 35% floor. That compares with 23.1% a week earlier (0.6 pp lower). In plain terms: about 2.2 in every 10 stocks picked earlier in the week finished Friday at least 3% above where they were picked. Another 1 were excluded for suspension or missing prices.
| Item | This week |
|---|---|
| Selections (three models) | 54 records |
| Eligible after de-duplication | 49 stocks |
| Excluded (suspended / no price) | 1 stocks |
| Cleared the 3% bar | 11 stocks |
| Hit rate | 22.4% |
| Closed higher (return > 0) | 20 stocks (40.8%) |
| Median return | -0.52% |
| Average return | +0.04% |
| Best / worst | +53.47% / -12.42% |
The median deserves more attention than the average: a few very large winners or losers can move the average, while the median shows what happened to the stock in the middle of the list.
Hit rate, last 6 weeks: 0.0% → 19.2% → 21.0% → 32.4% → 23.1% → 22.4%. That is 5 weeks in a row as Negative.
About this indicator
The indicator tracks one specific thing: which stocks the system picked between Wednesday last week and Tuesday, and how many of them closed Friday more than 3% above their pick-day price. A high share means this week's fresh breakouts tended to follow through; a low share means they mostly faded.
Both prices are adjusted closes, so dividends and splits do not create fake drops. A stock picked more than once in the window counts once, using its earliest pick date. Suspended or unpriced records are left out of the denominator, and a return has to be strictly above 3% to count — exactly 3% does not. Because pick dates differ, holding periods this week run from 3 to 7 trading days.
The stocks counted come from three places: KDZD (pocket pivot), YXFZ (monthly reversal), and stocks making a confirmed VCP breakout, including those upgraded from the watch list on volume. The band describes what already happened: above 50% is positive, 35% to 50% neutral, below 35% negative; with fewer than 10 eligible stocks, no band is given.
This article is a statistical review of prices that have already happened. It does not forecast index direction and is not investment advice. Weekly samples are small, so the rate will move around; read several weeks together.